The American Prospect's Paul Waldman: State-Level Republicans in the South See Little Need to Reach Out to Minorities

In a piece for The American Prospect, Paul Waldman provocatively claims that, for Republicans in Southern state legislatures, they have little incentive to reach out to minority voters.

Waldman maintains that the demographic troubles facing the GOP at the national level just don't apply at the Southern state level.  He cites the exit poll data showing the overwhelming Southern white support of the McCain-Palin ticket in 2008. In Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana in 2008, over 80% of whites in each of those three Deep South states voted for the GOP ticket.

While the national GOP is awash in angst about its ability to adjust to American demographic change, in Dixie, these are the halcyon days for Southern Republicans.  As described by Waldman, the structural basis of this Republican dominance (and likely continued dominance) in the South comes down to party and racial allegiance.  He claims that "it's little exaggeration to say that Republicans in the South would be happy if every elected Democrat in their state was a black Democrat."

Walman notes that in states like Alabama--a state where Romney won around 90% of the white vote in 2012--the GOP does not need any Black voters.  He maintains that, for a hypothetical Alabama Republican, "an all-white party is just fine with you."

Waldman's column is linked below.

The American Prospect: Little Incentive for State-level GOP to seek minority support

"This isn't equally easy in every state, but in some places in the South, the proportion of white Republicans has grown so high that once they can segregate the black voters (so to speak), it doesn't just mean they're no longer vulnerable to Democratic challengers on an individual basis, it also means their hold on power in the state as a whole is virtually assured."

---Paul Waldman, The American Prospect

New York Times: The Racial-Ethnic Demographic Compositions of Democratic vs. Republican Congressional Districts

The New York Times provides an illuminating graph showing the respective racial-ethnic proportions of the Democrats, Republicans, and the overall U.S. population.

Per the Census Bureau, the racial-ethnic composition of the U.S. population was thus in 2010 (at least for the four biggest groupings):

White, non-Hispanic: 63.4%
Hispanic: 16.4%
Black: 12.1%
Asian: 4.7%

Republican districts, per the Times, are significantly whiter and less racially-ethnically diverse than Democratic districts.  In the red (Republican) districts, whites make up nearly 75% of the population. Whites are 51% of the population in the blue (Democratic) districts.

The racial-ethnic demographic disparities are also found among Hispanics, Blacks, and Asians. For example, Hispanics make up nearly 23% of the population in Democratic districts, but only 11% in GOP districts.  Blacks, in turn, constitute 16% of blue districts, but only 8.5% of red districts. Asians compose nearly 7% of Democratic districts, but only 3% of GOP districts.

The bottom line is that overall,  Democratic congressional districts reflect the racial-ethnic diversity of the U.S., while for the most part, GOP districts do not.

The graph is linked below.

New York Times: Red vs. Blue Congressional Districts in Terms of Racial-Ethnic Composition

Washington Post's Kathleen Parker: A Republican "Bonfire of Vanities"

Washington Post columnist Kathleen Parker takes the Republican Party to task, arguing that GOP conservatives are behaving immaturely on such matters as the food stamps provision of the farm bill, and the immigration reform bill.  As conservative herself, Parker also calls out conservative columnists Bill Kristol and Rich Lowry for their joint anti-immigration editorial calling for the rejection of the Senate-passed bill.

Much like David Brooks (see the prior post), Parker contends that the GOP is committing political suicide over the long haul.

Kathleen Parker: The Rightwing Blunder on Immigration

"What Republicans are selling appeals to an ever-diminishing market that doesn’t even include their erstwhile allies in business and industry. And their self-immolation may prove to have been nothing more than a bonfire of vanities."

---Kathleen Parker, Washington Post

Conservative Columnist David Brooks Message to House Republicans: Pass the Immigration Reform Bill

New York Times columnist David Brooks argues that objections to the immigration reform bill made by fellow conservatives are weak.  On matters such as border security, economic growth, fertility rates, and fiscal discipline, the bill is in conformity with larger conservative goals, contends Brooks.

Brooks further contends that a GOP blockage of immigration reform could be a "tragedy" for the United States, and "political suicide" for the Republican Party.

Brooks' column is linked below.

David Brooks: The Republican-Controlled House Should Pass Immigration Reform

"Whether this bill passes or not, this country is heading toward a multiethnic future. Republicans can either shape that future in a conservative direction or, as I’ve tried to argue, they can become the receding roar of a white America that is never coming back."

----David Brooks, New York Times

National Journal's Charlie Cook: Warnings Against Stereotyping Demographic Groups and Voting

Charlie Cook takes a look at the complexities of ethnicity and gender in American voting patterns, particularly the ways in which women voters constitute a very heterogeneous demographic.

Cook notes that, within the GOP, there is a perspective holding that the party must learn to develop its messaging in fashions appealing to more varied audiences.

Charlie Cook: Stereotyping Demographic Voting Groups

"If Republicans want to appeal only to older white men, their rhetoric would not have to change one iota. But with the makeup of the electorate changing dramatically, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that the Republican Party has an unsustainable business model."

---Charlie Cook, National Journal

Salon's Joan Walsh: Appealing to White Racial Resentments Likely to be a Part of Potential GOP Efforts to Increase the White Vote

In a column of Salon, Joan Walsh argues that, if the Republicans attempt to increase their vote totals by reaching out exclusively to white voters, then they will likely appeal to racial resentments held by whites.

Joan Walsh: Stoking Racial Resentment and Maximizing the GOP White Vote

"I have a visceral reaction to conservatives arguing that Republicans should forget about trying to lure Latinos by passing immigration reform, and focus on turning out white voters instead. When Phyllis Schlafly or Pat Buchanan makes that pitch, it’s clear to me, it’s racist. They are urging their party to rely on the 50-year narrative of white grievance, perfected by Buchanan for Richard Nixon, that turned many white working-class people against Democrats."

---Joan Walsh, Salon

Pew Research Center: Food Stamps Political Demographics

According to the Pew Research Center, about 22% of Democrats have received federal food stamps at some juncture in their lives.  For Republicans, it's about 10%. Among Independents, 17% have received food stamps at some point.

All total, about 18% of Americans have participated in the food stamps program.

While in terms of party affiliation, participation rates were significantly different, in terms of political ideology, there was no significant difference.  Among liberals, conservatives, and moderates each group had 17% indicating participation in the food stamp program.

Pewresearch.org: Food Stamps Political Demographics

Brief State Demographic Profiles: Montana

Montana

This is the 26th installment of demographic profiles of each of the 50 states, plus the District of Columbia.  Some of the Census Bureau data are rounded.

State: Montana

Population: 1 million

Population growth from 2010 to 2012: 1.6%

Population under 18 years of age:  22.1%
Population 65 years of age and older: 15.7%

Racial-Ethnic Composition

White, Non-Hispanic: 87.2%

Hispanic: 3.1%
Black: < 1%
Asian: < 1%
Native American: 6.5%
Multiracial: 2.5%

Median Household Income:  $45,300
Percentage of Population in Poverty: 14.6%

Persons per square mile: 7

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Source: The U.S. Census Bureau (2010-2012 data)   www.quickfacts.census.gov

Brief State Demographic Profiles: Missouri

Missouri

This is the 25th installment of demographic profiles of each of the 50 states, plus the District of Columbia.  Some of the Census Bureau data are rounded.

State: Missouri

Population: 6 million

Population growth from 2010 to 2012: < 1%

Population under 18 years of age:  23.3%
Population 65 years of age and older: 14.7%

Racial-Ethnic Composition

White, Non-Hispanic: 80.6%

Hispanic: 3.7%
Black: 11.7%
Asian: 1.8%
Native American: < 1%
Multiracial: 2%

Median Household Income:  $47,200
Percentage of Population in Poverty: 14.3%

Persons per square mile: 87

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Source: The U.S. Census Bureau (2010-2012 data)   www.quickfacts.census.gov

Brief State Population Profiles: Mississippi

Mississippi

This is the 24th installment of demographic profiles of each of the 50 states, plus the District of Columbia.  Some of the Census Bureau data are rounded.

State: Mississippi

Population: 3 million

Population growth from 2010 to 2012: < 1%

Population under 18 years of age:  25%
Population 65 years of age and older: 13.5%

Racial-Ethnic Composition

White, Non-Hispanic: 57.6%

Hispanic: 2.9%
Black: 37.4%
Asian: 1%
Native American: < 1%
Multiracial: 1.1%

Median Household Income:  $38,700
Percentage of Population in Poverty: 21.6%

Persons per square mile: 63

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Source: The U.S. Census Bureau (2010-2012 data)   www.quickfacts.census.gov

Brief State Demographic Profiles: Minnesota

Minnesota

This is the 23rd installment of demographic profiles of each of the 50 states, plus the District of Columbia.  Some of the Census Bureau data are rounded.

State: Minnesota

Population: 5.4 million

Population growth from 2010 to 2012: 1.4%

Population under 18 years of age:  23.7%
Population 65 years of age and older: 13.6%

Racial-Ethnic Composition

White, Non-Hispanic: 82.4%

Hispanic: 4.9%
Black: 5.5%
Asian: 4.4%
Native American: 1.3%
Multiracial: 2.2%

Median Household Income:  $58,500
Percentage of Population in Poverty: 11%

Persons per square mile: 67

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Source: The U.S. Census Bureau (2010-2012 data)   www.quickfacts.census.gov

Thomas Edsall: Declining Political Power for Blacks in the South

In a provocative column of the New York Times, Thomas Edsall looks at the relationship between Republican takeovers of state legislatures in the former Confederacy and declining Black political power in these same Southern states.

Edsall's column is linked below.

Thomas Edsall: Blacks are losing political power in the South

"Republicans are currently entrenched, backed by decisive majorities of white voters. Republican legislators in the South have, in turn, moved aggressively on two fronts to secure their power: by designing legislative and Congressional districts minimizing Democratic prospects and by moving ahead with legislation designed to suppress voting under the guise of combating voter fraud."

----Thomas Edsall, New York Times

Slate's John Dickerson: Immigration Reform and Competing GOP Visions of Death

The GOP

Slate's John Dickerson takes a look at the continuing GOP dilemma on immigration reform.  He summarizes of substance of the joint editorial of National Review and The Weekly Standard, a statement penned by the respective editors Rich Lowry and Bill Kristol.   In short, Lowry and Kristol call on the Republican House to reject categorically the immigration bill passed by the U.S. Senate.

Dickerson notes that, within the Republican Party, there are now two forms of party death-fear. One version is the Lindsey Graham school which fears a demographic "death spiral" for the GOP if immigration reform fails to pass.  The other manifestation of Republican fear of death is the one often heard on the Tea Party rate, namely that a significant increase in Latino citizenship will render the death of the GOP.

An escalation of rightwing anti-immigration rhetoric will likely occur within Republican ranks, concludes Dickerson, should the GOP leadership follow Lowry and Kristol's advice.

Slate's John Dickerson: The Republican Immigration Problem

"Republicans don’t always look good when debating immigration reform. They get emotional, judge each other's motives, and generally provide Democrats with opportunities to point fingers at them. Republicans on both sides of the issue point to the trouble the GOP has had talking about immigration in the past. Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado is blamed for years of immigrant bashing that made the party look intolerant. In the 2012 GOP primary, the unresolved immigration issue caused a rolling fracas between Mitt Romney and Rick Perry. When Romney came out for 'self-deportation,' many in the party believe it defined Romney and the GOP as cold and unwelcoming."

------John Dickerson, Slate

Brief State Demographic Profiles: Michigan

Michigan

This is the 22nd installment of demographic profiles of each of the 50 states, plus the District of Columbia.  Some of the Census Bureau data are rounded.

State: Michigan

Population: 9.9 million

Population growth from 2010 to 2012: - <1%

Population under 18 years of age:  22.9%
Population 65 years of age and older: 14.6%

Racial-Ethnic Composition

White, Non-Hispanic: 76.2%

Hispanic: 4.6%
Black: 14.3%
Asian: 2.6%
Native American: <1%
Multiracial: 2.2%

Median Household Income:  $48,700
Percentage of Population in Poverty: 15.7%

Persons per square mile: 175

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Source: The U.S. Census Bureau (2010-2012 data)   www.quickfacts.census.gov

Brief State Demographic Profiles: Massachusetts

Massachusetts

This is the 21st installment of demographic profiles of each of the 50 states, plus the District of Columbia.  Some of the Census Bureau data are rounded.

State: Massachusetts

Population: 6.6 million

Population growth from 2010 to 2012: 1.5%

Population under 18 years of age:  21.1%
Population 65 years of age and older: 14.4%

Racial-Ethnic Composition

White, Non-Hispanic: 75.8%

Hispanic: 10.1%
Black: 7.9%
Asian: 5.8%
Native American: <1%
Multiracial: 2%

Median Household Income:  $66,000
Percentage of Population in Poverty: 10.7%

Persons per square mile: 839

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Source: The U.S. Census Bureau (2010-2012 data)   www.quickfacts.census.gov

Michael Tomasky: White Voters Likely to be Less Conservative in the Future

Michael Tomasky, in a column for The Daily Beast, argues that the American white population is evolving in a less conservative direction, and that conservative calls for the Republican Party to rely solely on white voters is foolish. Simply put, American whites are not a culturally static conservative voting bloc that can be harvested in greater future numbers.

In the last few election cycles, whites with graduate degrees are trending Democratic, and among college-educated whites in general, Romney's edge over Obama was modest.

Among younger working class whites, in turn, Tomasky maintains that working class millennials tend to support same-sex marriage, are pro-immigrant, and are less religious than their elders.  And while this demographic is likely to tack right on certain issues as they age, they are unlikely to jettison their current affinity for cultural tolerance.

Michael Tomasky: A Less Conservative U.S. White Population in the Making

"White people—yep, even working-class white people—are going to get less conservative in coming years, so the Republicans’ hopes of building a white-nationalist party will likely be dashed in the future even by white people themselves."

---Michael Tomasky, The Daily Beast

The New Republic's Nate Cohn: The Theory That More White Voters Alone Will Save the GOP is Bogus

Nate Cohn, in a piece for The New Republic, challenges Sean Trende's claim that the GOP can change  its recent electoral fortunes by maxing out its support among whites.  Much of Trende's thesis rests on the fact that recent GOP presidential candidates have been increasing their party's share of the white vote.  In 2012, Romney carried around 61%. Trende argues that white support for the GOP can continue and expand.

Cohn contends that Romney's high rate of support by the 2012 white demographic is misleading due to the fact that Romney racked up huge margins among Southern and Appalachian whites.  In swing states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, Romney's support among whites was more modest.  In fact, according to Cohn, in many parts of the U.S., Obama received white support in 2012 that exceeded Al Gore's in 2000.  Cohn provides a national map showing where Obama outperformed Gore.

That Hispanics alone cannot rescue the GOP on a national level, Cohn readily agrees with Trende.  But Cohn maintains that in states like Florida, Nevada, and Colorado, the Republicans must improve their appeal with Hispanics, due to the higher prevalence of Hispanic voters.

In Cohn's view, a GOP embrace of immigration reform, while it probably would not bring in a bountiful harvest of new Hispanic voters, would likely go a long way to "re-branding" the GOP along lines more in line with the realities of an American electorate that is less in tune with conservative stances of social issues.

In short, Cohn argues that the GOP must make inroads among a variety of voters, and not single demographic group provides the sole solution.

Cohn's article is linked below.

Nate Cohn: More White Voters Will Not be Enough to Sustain the GOP

"Demographic changes are turning the Bush coalition—which combined white conservatives with a few targeted inroads among sympathetic groups—into a coffin."

----Nate Cohn, The New Republic

NBC News' Allison Linn: A Lower American Birth Rate in the Aftermath of the Recession

Allison Linn of NBC News takes a look at the travails of a childless Las Vegas couple--Sky Pearce and Bryan Haas--regarding the decision to have children in an era of economic uncertainty.  Lin tells their story in the larger context of the decline of the American birth rate.

In 2007, per Linn, the U.S. birth rate was 69.3 live births per 1000 women ages 15 to 44.  In the post-recession year of 2011, the rate had declined to 63.2.  Preliminary data for 2012 indicates that the rate remained the same at 63.2.

NBC News: Fewer Babies in the Wake of the Great Recession

"It’s common for people to have fewer kids when a recession hits, because they worry that they will lose their job or their home, or just not be able to afford another mouth to feed."

---Allison Linn, NBC News

Brief State Demographic Profiles: Maryland

Maryland

This is the 20th installment of demographic profiles of each of the 50 states, plus the District of Columbia.  Some of the Census Bureau data are rounded.

State: Maryland

Population: 5.9 million

Population growth from 2010 to 2012: 1.9%

Population under 18 years of age:  22.8%
Population 65 years of age and older: 13%

Racial-Ethnic Composition

White, Non-Hispanic: 53.9%

Hispanic: 8.7%
Black: 30%
Asian: 6%
Native American: <1%
Multiracial: 2.5%

Median Household Income:  $72,400
Percentage of Population in Poverty: 9%

Persons per square mile: 595

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Source: The U.S. Census Bureau (2010-2012 data)   www.quickfacts.census.gov

Brief State Demographic Profiles: Maine

Maine

This is the 19th installment of demographic profiles of each of the 50 states, plus the District of Columbia.  Some of the Census Bureau data are rounded.

State: Maine

Population: 1.3 million

Population growth from 2010 to 2012: <1%

Population under 18 years of age:  20%
Population 65 years of age and older: 17%

Racial-Ethnic Composition

White, Non-Hispanic: 94.1%

Hispanic: 1.4%
Black: 1.3%
Asian: 1.1%
Native American: <1%
Multiracial: 1.5%

Median Household Income:  $47,900
Percentage of Population in Poverty: 12.8%

Persons per square mile: 43

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Source: The U.S. Census Bureau (2010-2012 data)   www.quickfacts.census.gov