For many, basic familiarity with American demographic change leads to the simple conclusion that the Republican Party must expand its appeal to minority voters, particularly Latinos. Some Republican strategists, commentators, and elected officials have echoed this conventional wisdom. Certain strident GOP conservatives, however, have maintained that the Republicans stand to gain very little by altering their message and policy stances. Most specifically, these conservatives vehemently oppose the immigration bill that was passed this week by the U.S. Senate.
David Weigel, in the column linked below, argues that contrary to conventional wisdom, the GOP might be able to profit off of greater racial polarization, thereby increasing the Republican share of the white vote by margins even greater than the ones they enjoyed in 2012. A reduction in Black turnout, in turn, could be enough to carry the GOP to victory in presidential elections.
Slate.com's David Weigel: Skepticism About the Republican Need for Hispanic Votes
"Imagine there's no black candidate driving up black turnout, imagine the Hispanic vote splitting the way it does now, but imagine more loyalty from white voters to the GOP—a real trend from 2010 and 2012. Republicans could hold that coalition and win the White House into the 2040s."